Darnell Group’s research methodology is grounded in the belief that it is primarily business models and economics, not technology that drives markets. The most important question answered by good market research is: Why is the market expected to behave in the predicted manner and what factors could alter that behavior in the future? Simple questions about market size, while important to answer, are of secondary importance compared with an understanding of the underlying dynamics that drive markets. It is the underlying dynamics (and changes in those dynamics) that are the source of opportunities and threats for market participants. Darnell Group market research methodology is based on the following principles:
Development of a detailed econometric & business model focused primarily on end-use applications for the products or services that are the subject of the research. An explicit and detailed market model is the cornerstone of Darnell Group’s research methodology.
Include explicit analysis of pricing and cost trends as well as dollar and unit sales forecasts. Analysis of all three-market “dimensions” provides increased thoroughness and discipline to the forecasting and analysis process.
Identify and quantify market/demand inflection points to clearly and thoroughly understand potential threats and opportunities. Markets are inherently “discontinuous and non-linear”. Identification and understanding of these factors often leads to “counter-intuitive” but correct analytical findings.
Use appropriate and comprehensive data collection and statistical analysis tools – reliable quantitative forecasts cannot be developed through limited surveys and industry “consensus.” “Self reporting” by companies participating in the market being studied produces inherently limited and flawed results. Darnell Group research is an independent, unbiased, and thorough analysis. It is not a report of the current consensus among the participants in a particular market.
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